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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

6/22/2004

More Polls

In this most recent national poll, conducted from Friday night June 18th to Sunday night June 20th, 2004, the Liberal Party has risen slightly to take the lead with 34% of decided voter support (up 5 points). Conversely, the Conservative Party has dropped 4 points and now hold 28% of the national decided vote. This change in the national vote race can be largely credited to the changing federal landscape in the pivotal province of Ontario, where the Liberals (42%, up 8 points) have surged back into the lead over the Conservatives (30%, down 8 points) by a substantial 12 point margin.
ipsos-reid
Proving that attack ads work the Liberals are holding on in Ontario. The question is whether that fear based support will hold through Election Day. For the Liberals to hold on to Ontario they have to convince people that their scandals and corruption are nothing compared to "the end of Canada" Harper's election would create. That may be tough.

The problem with negative campaigning is that fear is transient. You can scare the hell out of someone on Friday and by Monday they are back at work and having second thoughts. If Harper can continue a campaign of re-assurance while underlining the need for change he may be able to erode the fear which is currently driving the Liberal numbers.