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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

6/17/2004

Regional SES

SES is out with the regional breakdowns:

Atlantic Libs 34 PC 41
Quebec Libs 30 Bloc 52
Ontario Libs 36 PC 40 NDP 23
Man/Sask Libs 32 PC 32 NDP 30
Alberta Libs 32 PC 51
BC Libs 31 PC 35 NDP 25

The Atlantic number is a shocker. The PCs are up 15 points in ten days. I have to bet a bit of statisitical error.

The Grits are, on these numbers, done in Quebec. Basically reduced to Westmount and a few other Montreal ridings.

Ontario is still interesting. The Tories are off their June 6 43% and the Grits up by 3%. Negative advertising has worked to a degree. The question is really how those votes are distributed. If the Liberals run up big majorities in downtown Toronto and the burbs, Harper could still win the majority of seats in Ontario. Just depends on the splits. It will also depend on whether Smilin' Jack can split the vote in enough Ontario "safe" Liberal seats.

Hard to call Man/Sask simply because while it looks like a three way tie the seats are unlikely to fall that way. Rural conservatives are not going to suddenly turn Liberal nor are downtown Winnipeggers going to embrace Harper.

Alberta is Alberta. The only interesting question will be if there are any Liberals elected.

As ever, I have no idea at all what is going on in British Columbia. The Greens are at 10% and the Bloc has 3%. We beyond the mountains will, I suspect, vote fairly stategically. (In my own riding, if a conservative government is assured, I will vote Green....how weird is that.) The one thing which is clear is that the Grits have no momentum.

Overall this poll suggests the beginning of a Conservative sweep with good representation from every region of the country except Quebec. (Which is too bad but not the end of the world.) Harper simply has to keep pushing for a majority and hoping the disenchantment with the waste and corruption of the Liberal Party will propel him into office.