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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

6/11/2004

SES overnights

Based on last night's numbers, CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking shows that support
for the Conservatives and Harper as PM has slipped: Conservatives 34%
(down from 37% in the previous day's tracking poll), Liberals 33%, NDP 18%,
BQ 11%, Green 5%. Although earlier in the week Harper came close to Martin
as best PM, the Martin lead has widened: Martin 31%, Harper 22%, Layton 11%.

Our nightly tracking indicates that when the campaign focuses on change,
the Tory numbers move up and when the focus becomes the socially
conservative views of some Tory candidates the Tory numbers go down.
SES
The analysis is not really new. Harper can be damaged by a lack of discipline from his candidates - some bozo announced today on the CBC that there really was a hidden agenda - and the socon problem is real.

That said, the Conservatives need to be ready with a set of ads which highlight 1) scandals, 2) waste, 3) the same old gang. These are not so much attack ads as ways of asking whether the electorate wants more of the same pandering and patronage.

It might also be a good time for the socons to cool their jets.