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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

6/15/2004

Still a horse race

The Liberals and Conservatives continue their neck and neck race, once
again tied as of polling completed last night. As of last night, CPAC-SES
Tracking: Conservatives 33%, Liberals 32%, NDP 19%, BQ 12%, Green 5%.
Time for a change holds steady at 59%, while Martin slips 3 points as the
leader who would make the best Prime Minister but still holds onto a
marginal lead (2 points) over Stephen Harper.
ses email
At a guess the voters are waiting for tonight's debate. At the same time, the fact the tories and Liberals are in a dead heat does not bode all that well for Martin. With all the attack ads and outright bribes the best the Liberals can do is stay even. The Tories, on the other hand, are in the position that they can go after the Liberals with attack ads of their own claiming turnabout is fairplay. If Harper wins - whatever that may mean - tonight and the polls begin to go the Tories way I suspect they will keep the negative ads off air; but if it is a draw then watch for all AdScam all the time.