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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

10/29/2004

Boo!

Apparently hiding in a cave for three years does nothing for your appearance: but Osama is back...Not dead..still threatening and sounding as though he got his briefing notes from the Fat Bastard.

Sullivan suggests,
Bummer. I'd hoped he was buried under rubble. What to make of the rant? The parroting of idiotic Michael Moore points was a little pathetic for an alleged spiritual mastermind. And the re-calibration of the rationale for 9/11 - again retroactively talking of Palestinians - was the usual vile opportunism. But why release a tape just before the elections? The obvious impact will be to help Bush. Any reminder of the 9/11 attacks will provoke a national rallying to the commander-in-chief. The deep emotional bond so many of us formed with the president back then is Bush's strongest weapon in this election, and OBL has just revived it. The real October Surprise turned out not to be OBL's capture (sorry, Teresa!) but OBL's resilience. I have a feeling that this will tip the election decisively toward the incumbent.
andrew sullivan
I'm inclined to agree but largely because OBL's video escapade will remind Americans that there is a serious threat to the West, not a nuisance. Johnny Cambodia still has not got a clue and while his pledged to "do whatever it takes", knowing what it takes - and, hint, it is not the French - is key.

With three spinning days left the question is whether OBL's remarks can be spun as actively supporting Kerry in which case I'll revise my prediction of a Bush victory to 5-7% lead in popular vote and 20+ Electoral College votes. But, if it stays neutral my sense is that the American electorate will think again about Kerry and, by a small margin elect Bush.

Bush needs one zinger, one line, which can nail Johnny Cambodia's dithering in the face of terrorism to the cross of OBL's video and he'll be able to go to bed early November 2.