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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

10/06/2004

There is no substitute for Victory

"We have met representatives from Fallujah," the interim deputy prime minister, Barham Salih, said Wednesday. "We have had detailed discussion with these representatives, and we have agreed on a road map or a framework to facilitate the resolution of this conflict in Fallujah."

The talks apparently gained momentum Wednesday after the mujaheddin shura -- or council of holy warriors -- that now governs Fallujah voted overwhelmingly to accept the broad terms demanded by Iraq's government. By a vote of 10 to 2, the council agreed to eject foreign fighters, turn over all heavy weapons, dismantle checkpoints and allow the Iraqi National Guard to enter the city.

In return, the city would not face the kind of U.S.-led military offensive that reclaimed the central Iraqi city of Samarra from insurgents last week, a prospect that one senior Iraqi official said clearly grabbed the attention of the Fallujah delegation.
washington post
This may be critical or it may be a mirage; but either way it is a potent demonstration that in a military situtation military success is critical.

Politically, a knock on capitulation in Fallujah would more than counter Bremer and the no-WMD's report.

Kerry has to argue that Iraq is going down the toliet under Bush - a victory in Fallujah would reduce the insurgency to Sadr City and random, nasty, suicide bombings. Sadr City is, in theory, supposed to be under the control of al Sadr who has made his peace with the interim government. Without the Sunni insurgency, the Americans and the Iraqi security people could work away at bringing Sadr City to heel.

The suicide bombings will go on as long as there are fanatics. That could be a while.

As I said, this could be real or could be a mirage; what it does indicate though is that the insurgents in Fallujah have seen what happened in Samarra and, to a degree, realize the jig is up.