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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

11/02/2004

Kerry pollster calls it....for Bush

First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote....

Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.
the hillvia the corner
Interesting. The OBL tape had the effect of reminding people that this really is a nation at war and, I think, put the final couple of points on a Bush victory.

In fact, that tape may have ensure that there will be a clear winner tonight rather than in January after the Dem's 2000 lawyers have had their whack at every irregularity, real and imagined, they can find.

I wonder what the actual number is that will deter election by litigation 3%, 5%?