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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

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It is now all over the internet that George Bush has pulled somewhere between 5 and 11 points in front of John Kerry. Post convention bounce is, of course, part of it.

However, I suspect the underlying cause is the season.

Until the Fall the Presidential election is abstract. But as September dawns people begin to focus on what is really there.

The spoiling attack on Kerry mounted by the Swift Boat vets holed his credibily. The Dems lack of effective response - and how do you respond when your guy says he was hroically somewhere he wasn't? - meant the whole issue of Kerry's economy with the truth was opened up.

While I have next to no time for Bush as a domestic President he has demonstrated his ability to see clearly the nature of the only real threat to America. The fact is that the horror in Russia could be visited on the United States if the Islamofascists are allowed even a day's breathing space.

Bush has proven time and again that when it comes to foreign policy he is willing to take the hit if he is convinced that American action will forstall terrorist activity. Kerry has not.

For the moment there is only one real issue in the Presidential campaign - which candidate is more likely to actively fight terrorism. The rest, as Americans are showing in the polls, is irrelevant.


The consequences of not negotiating with terrorists are horrible.

And, absolutely necessary.

Sullivan on Bush

conservatism as we have known it is now over. People like me who became conservatives because of the appeal of smaller government and more domestic freedom are now marginalized in a big-government party, bent on using the power of the state to direct people's lives, give them meaning and protect them from all dangers. Just remember all that Bush promised last night: an astonishingly expensive bid to spend much more money to help people in ways that conservatives once abjured.
andrew sullivan
Sullivan is not going to support Bush because of the gay marriage issue. I would not support Bush because of the Republican embrace of big government signalled in Bush's speech if, and it is a huge if, I had the slightest confidence in John Kerry's character or his willingness to use real force effectively in the War on Terror. I have faith in neither and thus can only regret that Bush is so completely unable to see the dangers of expanding government.


A militant group run by a Jordanian-born insurgent released a videotape showing its members killing three men identified as Turkish hostages, according to al-Jazeera television, which broadcast portions of the tape on Thursday.

Shortly afterward, police near the city of Samarra said they had discovered the bodies of two slain Turkish citizens and an unidentified man. It was not immediately clear whether the three bodies belonged to the men shown in the video.
washington post
Presumably these were Muslims. Not that it matters...Murder is murder.


Talking Point

Josh Marshell is one of the more intelligent Democratic bloggers in the is the sound of the wheels falling off the Kerry campaign,
And today I realized -- somehow suddenly -- that what had been a congealing sense that the second half of August had been a bad couple weeks for Kerry had turned into a galloping panic that his campaign is in disarray and hope for his candidacy may be close to over
talking points memo

Kobe case dropped

As I don't have a TV the story of, as the sportswriting mafia would put it, hoopster Kobe Bryant has not made much of an impression. Rape accusations are, it seems, often part of the territory for talented atheletes.

The case itself was dropped yesterday. By the prosecution. Likely because the complainant's sexual history, medical condition and truthfulness have all come into question.

The beginning of the end of the case occured when the woman either revealed her motives or tried salvage something by filing a civil suit on August 10 for 3 million dollars. You don't sue if there is a serious criminal case going forward. Plenty of time for that when Kobe is behind bars.

Politically the case is interesting because it called into question the entire basis of the so-called rape shield laws which prohibit a complainant's prior or present sexual conduct into issue in a rape case. The logic of rape shield laws is pretty straightforward, rape is a violent rather than sexual crime and thus the complnant's sexual conduct is simply not relevant.

Bryant's lawyers challenged the constitutionality of the Colorado rape shield law and, while they lost the appeal, they systematically worked to make the issue the complainant's sexual behavior. (You can read the chronology here.)

The difficulty both prosecution and defence face in jurisidictions which have rape shield laws and the offence of rape or sexual assault is that too often judges and juries confuse sex and sexual assault. The two could not be more different and less relevant to each other.

I have no idea if the judge in the Kobe Bryant case was confused. But it was not for want of the defence trying to create a sex story in place of an assault charge.


Legacy Media

glen Reynolds writing at TCS and, for subscribers, the Wall Street Journal,
But while the media's willingness to side with Kerry has been striking, it's also like the proverbial thirteenth chime of the clock -- not only wrong itself, but calling into question everything that came before. The loss of credibility that has come with that, coupled with the press's poor performance on all sorts of topics (don't these people know how to use Google? don't they realize that we do?) will be a long-lasting blow.

Kerry v. Kerry: The First Debate

over at Tech Central Station Duane D. Freese has exclusive coverage of the Kerry v. Kerry debate. Were I American I am sure that there is at least one John Kerry who I could vote for.


Boy, that John Kerry is a nuanced sort of a guy. Bush says,

"I don't think you can win it," Bush replied. "But I think you can create conditions so that those who use terror as a tool are less acceptable in parts of the world."

Kerry says,

"We can, we must and we will win the war on terror," Kerry told hundreds of cheering supporters who greeted him at Nashville International Airport before he speaks on Wednesday to the American Legion -- the largest U.S. veterans' group.

"The way to win the war on terror is to fight a smarter, more effective war on terror," Kerry said. "That begins by electing a president to bring other nations to our side to share the responsibilities."

Turn that boat into fire there John....That should work.


The Season

The weather switched on Galiano. From hot and dry to cool and autumnal. The rain dropped the fire hazard and turned our attention towards the fall.

At the moment in New York there are a large number of people inside wearing elephant hats and a large number of people outside carrying coffins. In Russia, as I write, 400 people, half of them children are being held hostage by people who are almost certainly Muslim extremists. Twelve Napalese service workers were butchered by jihadis in Iraq. Bombs are going off in Israel. Two Russian airliners were blown out of the sky by, er, Islamic extremists.

The people outside the hall in New York City are desperately hoping that defeating George Bush and electing John Kerry will turn back the clock. Make it September the 10th again.

The jihadis have a clearer vision.


Losing Najaf

I have posted a longer version of the post below at my Long Posts blog.