BounceIt is now all over the internet that George Bush has pulled somewhere between 5 and 11 points in front of John Kerry. Post convention bounce is, of course, part of it.
However, I suspect the underlying cause is the season.
Until the Fall the Presidential election is abstract. But as September dawns people begin to focus on what is really there.
The spoiling attack on Kerry mounted by the Swift Boat vets holed his credibily. The Dems lack of effective response - and how do you respond when your guy says he was hroically somewhere he wasn't? - meant the whole issue of Kerry's economy with the truth was opened up.
While I have next to no time for Bush as a domestic President he has demonstrated his ability to see clearly the nature of the only real threat to America. The fact is that the horror in Russia could be visited on the United States if the Islamofascists are allowed even a day's breathing space.
Bush has proven time and again that when it comes to foreign policy he is willing to take the hit if he is convinced that American action will forstall terrorist activity. Kerry has not.
For the moment there is only one real issue in the Presidential campaign - which candidate is more likely to actively fight terrorism. The rest, as Americans are showing in the polls, is irrelevant.