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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another









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4/11/2005

Polls...

The first post Brault polling is out and can be read here (irritating PDF). Nationally the Grits have gone from 36.7% of vote in the last election to 25%. The Tories are up 7, the NDP up 5, the Bloc barely moves.

My sense is that this is very preliminary and reflects the fact that the Pope and Chuck and Camilla - not to mention the Masters - held the viewing public over the weekend. The sheer venality of the Grits has not really had a chance to sink in. Money in envelopes is pretty much the mark of the Third World dictatorship.

That said there are a couple of things to watch for. First, new material at Gomery. There are witnesses testifying and some of them are going to flesh out Brault's testimony. And some of them are going to finger other Liberal operatives.

Second,the ekos poll indicates that 60% of Canadians see Martin as bearing some responsibility for the Adscam scandal. The question is how effectively Martin can change that number and how well Harper can make it stick. That will be determined in the next couple of weeks.

Third, watch how many people think Adscam is worth calling an election over. At the moment that number is 15% nationally. That would have to go up for the CPC to pull the trigger.

Fourth, Liberal defections. Doug Kilgor is threatening. Jason Kenny is saying he knows of a couple of other Grit MPs who might jump. Any mor ethan three or four and the Martin government should fall of its own weight.

While I believe that the CPC needs to defeat the government as soon as possible, there is a good argument for a week or two's delay simply to have the general public realize the depth of the corruption. At the moment there seems to be the perception that this is just the usual run of government scandal....That needs to change.