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Jay Currie

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5/14/2005

100,000 Iraqi deaths...er, no

The survey for the UN Development Programme, entitled Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004, questioned more than 21,600 households this time last year. Its findings, released by the Ministry of Planning yesterday, could finally resolve the debate over how many Iraqis were killed in the war that overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein in April 2003.

The 370-page report said that it was 95 per cent confident that the toll during the war and the first year of occupation was 24,000, but could have been between 18,000 and 29,000. About 12 per cent of those were under 18.

The figure is far lower than the 98,000 deaths estimated in The Lancet last October, which said that it had interviewed nearly 1,000 households. But it is far higher than other figures.
times via Tim Blair
More evidence that the widely cited Lancet study was nothing more than a politcally inflated guesstimate designed to embarass the Bush administration before the election....This is still far too many deaths; but at least it looks a bit more statistically plausible than the bogus Lancet piece.

Tim Worstall blogs about the surprising lack of media attention this new report is getting:
Maybe it’s just me, maybe I’m way off base or something, actually wanting attention paid to this new report, perhaps the same amount of attention as was paid to the one that came out just before a US Presidential election. It would, of course, be way way to cynical to think that that might actually be the reason why there is not, as yet, such attention being paid.
tim worstall
I was shocked by this so I quickly checked the front page of The Guardian, The New York Times, The Huffington Post....Nada, squat, no mention at all. Can't imagine why; something to do with news cycles I bet.