I don't think the government will fall tonight. Or, even if Dithers loses on the second, Buzz Hargrove, budget that the oily little man will do the decent thing and resign.
And I am not sure it matters.
A couple of weeks ago Harper talked about the Liberals having lost the moral authority to govern. He was premature. It took the last two weeks of bribery, betrayal and complete contempt for the unwritten conventions of Parliament for the last vestiges of the Liberals legitimacy to evaporate leaving no more than a stain for a government.
Winning tonight, by a vote or two will do nothing to erase the sleeze, the corruption and the utter lack of ethics which has become the trademark of the Liberals in power. What it may do is give the CPC the opportunity to put forward something a little better thought out than "Me too."
Because, while I have been disqusted with the Liberals I have not been the least bit impressed with the CPC's willingness to tag along.
For real change to come to Canada, and there is no question that real change is needed, the CPC has to articulate a vision of a Tory Canada which offers something more than, "Just like the Liberals but without the corruption".
They need to begin by taking a serious look at why Belinda left and why a large number of their potential supporters are sitting on their hands. And, no, it is not just SSM. Rather it is an entire mindset driven by the most reactionary members of the social conservative right.
As regular readers know, I have no time for political correctness; but I have a lot of time for treating individuals as equals before the law.
If the Tory party took equal rights seriously it could focus on the Liberals' systematic undermining of the family through the tax system, it could attack the discrimination inherent in parental benefits for working mothers but not for stay at home mums, it could propose tax cuts which made it possible for people to stay at home and raise their own children.
Most of all, by beginning with individual equality, the Tories could get to work destroying the myth that they are scary or callous.
Losing the vote in the Commons tonight could be the making of a modern Conservative Party.
For the Liberals, a win will simply postpone the day of reckoning. All their bribes, their promises, their spending spree and even the acquisition of Belinda will not disipate the fury in Quebec, the anger in the West and the growing realization in Ontario that the Liberal Party is the problem, not the solution.