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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another









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5/14/2005

Snooze

The three main parties are at a standstill in terms of voter support. The BC Liberals lead the NDP by a margin of 47% to 39% among decided voters, with the Greens trailing at 11% support. These results are basically unchanged from Ipsos-Reid polls taken early in the campaign (46% Libs, 39% NDP, 13% Green) and in March (46% Libs, 39% NDP, 12% Green). Three percent (up 1 point) of decided British Columbians say they will vote for "some other party". These results exclude the 10% (down 2 points) of voters who are undecided or express no party preference.

The usual regional and gender gaps are still apparent in the vote result. The Liberals have a 15-point lead (unchanged) in the Lower Mainland (51% Lib vs. 36% NDP), while the two main contenders are tied (42% Lib vs. 42% NDP) in the rest of the province (formerly a 4 point NDP lead).
Ipsos-Reid
There is not much question that Carole James and her increasingly Blairite NDP will pick up seats in the coming BC election. Perhaps as many as 30 from their current 2.

What will be more interesting is to see the NDP infighting following the election. James is pretty much a pragmatist with little time for her "brothers and sisters" in the trade union movement. Nor has she shown any notable fondness for the public service unions which make up a huge section of that movement. She is far from being a doctrinaire socialist. All of which will drive party activists around the twist if she wins more than a handful of seats.

But the election itself is unlikely to change much.

On thing which is interesting is the Liberal lead in the Lower Mainland...I have no polling data to back this up but my sense is that the nearly 50% Chinese population in Vancouver and over 50% Chinese population in Richmond are not going to vote NDP. If anyone does have ethnic polling numbers I'd be interested.

Of course I will regret this post if Campbell loses...but I don't think there is much chance of that happening.)