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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another









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6/20/2005

Adieu mon amies

"In all likelihood the Parti Quebecois will become the Quebec government within the next couple of years and Gilles Duceppe will cross into Quebec politics to become the Premier. There will be another referendum with a strong likelihood that it will pass.

Why do I say that?

Because no one will be able to speak for Canada in any sort of credible way. The NDP and Tories are both without influence in Quebec and the Liberals will still be in disgrace.

Let's assume that the referendum fails. Separatists will just view that (as they have in the past) as a temporary setback in the inexorable march to independence.

But that's not the whole picture. Alberta and British Columbia are becoming less and less enchanted with their place in the country. This means that to the extent the Liberals offer goodies to Quebec, far western Canadians will see this as further evidence of the fact that they have always been and will always be short changed in the Ottawa power structure."
rafe mair, the tyee
Rafe pretty much nails it. In fact, it is more or less impossbile for the Liberals to do anything in Quebec simply because, if Gormery finds nothing else, he will find that the Adscam activities were in direct contravention of Quebec's election laws. While Kinsella and Chretien may have thought that they were at war there was no excuse for breaking the law. Which means that the Liberal Party will be silenced in the next referendum campaign. If the Liberals form another government, which there is every possibility they will, there is no chance at all that the Government of Canada will be welcome in the Quebec debate.

And Rafe is dead right about Alberta and BC. There is not the slightest reason to believe that we are going to be willing to tolerate the sort of wholesale bribery which was used to keep Quebec in Canada the last time out. And this time both provinces will have the wherewithal to simply say - enough!

If the Liberals are re-elected by Ontario with a smattering of support in a few cities in the West the ability of the Liberals to claim to speak for the rest of Canada will be non-existant. Even if the Liberals win seats in the West those seats will be won in riding which are culturally disconnected from the concerns which will drive Western Canadians out of Canada.

And, what is particularily interesting, is that Rafe is writing for The Tyee which, though I occassionally write for them, is a rational lefty magazine. It is no longer just right wing "kooks" who are saying that the West will not tolerate more Quebec bribes.