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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another









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6/06/2005

Uh-Oh

Making the cover of Time magazine is pretty much a sign that a story has passed it climax...A bubble may be bursting somewhere near you.

Don't believe me? Here is the Time cover for September 27, 1999 when the NASDQ Composite index was at 154.00, two years later that index stood at 67. Of course, Time was not wrong, by March 2000, six months later, the Nasdaq index was at 282. Largely because magazines like Time were hyping the boom and bringing loads of people who had no business in the volatile, over valued, hi-tech market into that market afraid that they were missing the next big thing.

Update: Calculated Risk exerpts Yale economist Robert Schiller. You'll remember Schiller on "Irrational Exuberance" the last time there was a little bubble...

"Although home prices have gone up a lot in the recent years, they are just the same houses, right? There is no change in the services they provide, its just the value we put on them. And so houses' value can just evaporate overnight too. If people suddenly get vary wary of investing houses, because they don't think the prices are going to go up, or if they think they are going to fall that will cause home prices to fall."
robert shiller


Update II: Good news, HedgeStreet is offering a way to short the housing market in selected US cities.