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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another

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Suicide bombers have largely been foreigners. As Iraqis are quick to point out, Iraqis are not into this sort of thing. Neither are the foreigners any more, many of them refusing to undertake missions that just kill Iraqi civilians. So more and more suicide bombers are not volunteers, but men kidnapped and told to carry out the mission, or see family members killed. The bodies of car bombers have been found handcuffed to the steering wheel. Many suicide car bombers have dual detonation systems, one under the control of the driver, another under the control of a distant "supervisor," ready to set the bomb off if the suicide bomber is seen to get confused, or tries to get away from his fate.
strategy page
My sense is that the Iraqi terrorists are fast running out of steam.

Kidnapping and killing Arab diplomats is simply suicidal. It alienates the Arab world and the Iraqi Sunni minority.

Add to that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's announcement that al-Qaeda is also going to begin attacking Shi'ite militias (and it really couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of thugs) and you are seeing the end of the so called "insurgency".

No doubt there will still be attacks and bombs; but the net effect will be to infuriate the Kurds and the Shi'ites and leave the Sunnis to bear the brunt of that anger. Which they will do for only so long. Eventually, and it seems to be happening now, increasing numbers of Sunnis will cease to support the terrorists and move towards co-operating with the Iraqi government. As they do, the ability of the jihadis to operate will be diminished.

With serious efforts at cutting off the flow of feorgn jihadis, the situation will continue to improve and, at some point, the terrorists will have lost simply because they have not won.