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Jay Currie

One Damn Thing After Another









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4/12/2005

The Midst of Moving Hell

Moving Hell is taking longer than we thought it would so blogging will stay light.

Meanwhile, the polling seems to be firming up for the CPC...or is it?

What is clear from the Ipsos poll is that Canadians are really, really, angry about the Brault revelations. What is not as clear is whether this will translate into firm Tory support.

Looking at the numbers in BC it seems the NDP is a beneficiary. So are the Greens.

As I have said before, the CPC by embracing its socons has alienated those of us who are fiscal conservatives but libertarian in our social views. A group which is, I suspect, rather larger, if a bit quieter, than the CPC realizes.

SSM leaves me sitting on my hands for this election. Like the Flea, I will not vote for a party which wants to roll back the extension of equal rights to a minority of Canadians. And I cannot imagine voting for the Grits simply because to do so would be to forgive them their trespasses....something which is only possible after a good, long, stint in Opposition.

All of which is too bad because in many close, urban, ridings in Canada, CPC candidates will have lots of support from people who are mad at the Liberals but will be missing the votes of people who cannot imagine why the Tories insist on making a big deal out of SSM. Probably the difference between majority and minority status.

4/11/2005

NDP??

The Ekos poll also indicates that the NDP is doing very well in BC and on the Praries.

The BC numbers likely reflect our own provincial election turmoil as much as anything else. However, in much of the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, socons are not popular. Votes which should be breaking away from the Liberals towards the CPC are, instead, finding homes in the NDP.

The Praries are, as ever, a mystery.

Polls...

The first post Brault polling is out and can be read here (irritating PDF). Nationally the Grits have gone from 36.7% of vote in the last election to 25%. The Tories are up 7, the NDP up 5, the Bloc barely moves.

My sense is that this is very preliminary and reflects the fact that the Pope and Chuck and Camilla - not to mention the Masters - held the viewing public over the weekend. The sheer venality of the Grits has not really had a chance to sink in. Money in envelopes is pretty much the mark of the Third World dictatorship.

That said there are a couple of things to watch for. First, new material at Gomery. There are witnesses testifying and some of them are going to flesh out Brault's testimony. And some of them are going to finger other Liberal operatives.

Second,the ekos poll indicates that 60% of Canadians see Martin as bearing some responsibility for the Adscam scandal. The question is how effectively Martin can change that number and how well Harper can make it stick. That will be determined in the next couple of weeks.

Third, watch how many people think Adscam is worth calling an election over. At the moment that number is 15% nationally. That would have to go up for the CPC to pull the trigger.

Fourth, Liberal defections. Doug Kilgor is threatening. Jason Kenny is saying he knows of a couple of other Grit MPs who might jump. Any mor ethan three or four and the Martin government should fall of its own weight.

While I believe that the CPC needs to defeat the government as soon as possible, there is a good argument for a week or two's delay simply to have the general public realize the depth of the corruption. At the moment there seems to be the perception that this is just the usual run of government scandal....That needs to change.